
How many governments reach their midterm as a minority government only to find they're more popular than when they started out?
Answers on a fat Geordie Unionist's forehead in BiC pen...

POLL SHOWS INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM “THERE TO BE WON”
SUPPORT MOVES AHEAD IN EUROPEAN CONTEXT
New findings of a YouGov poll show that support for Scottish independence moves ahead when the question is put in the context of Scotland being “a member of the European Union in its own right”. In total, 42 per cent back that position, compared to 40 per cent against.
The poll also shows that 35 per cent of Scots are more likely to back Scottish independence if the Tories were to win the next General Election, compared to just 6 per cent who would be less likely – a balance of some six-to-one.
In the independence referendum poll question, support for independence increases by 4 points from the last YouGov poll in March to 37%, with 52% against – the best position in a YouGov poll since September 2008.
SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson said:
“This poll shows that an independence referendum is there to be won. As we approach the European elections, when people are asked if they want Scotland to be a member of the EU in our own right – as opposed to being represented by the UK government – the answer is positive. And the headline support for independence has also increased by 4 points to the best position in a YouGov poll since last autumn.
“As the UK government arbitrarily axes the Scottish budget by £500 million in the teeth of a recession, it will become ever clearer why Scotland needs to be in charge of our own resources – and with our own voice to protect and promote Scottish interests in Europe.”
SNP President and MEP Ian Hudghton said;
“This poll is an excellent starting point for the SNP as we go into the European election campaign.
“This poll shows voters want Scotland to have a strong independent voice in Europe. A vote for the SNP in June is about giving Scotland that voice, supporting the SNP in fighting for Scottish jobs in Europe and showing that Scotland has what it takes to be at the heart of Europe.”
ENDS
Details of the poll are as follows:
On balance do you think Scotland should…?
Continue to be represented by the UK Government in the European Union - 40%
Be a member of the European Union in its own right and represented by the Scottish Government - 42%
Neither of these - 9%
Don’t know - 9%
In the referendum, the Scottish Government intends to ask people whether they think the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership with the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent country.
Do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate this new partnership?
I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 37%
I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 52%
Don’t know - 11%
Note - In a YouGov poll in January the gap was 26% and in a March YouGov poll it was 20%.
If the Conservative Party were to win the next General Election, would this make you more likely or less likely to back Scottish independence?
Much more likely to back Scottish independence - 24%
Slightly more likely - 11%
Slightly less likely - 3%
Much less likely to back Scottish independence - 3%
No difference – I would back Scottish independence anyway - 14%
No difference – I would NOT back Scottish independence anyway - 34%
Don’t know - 11%
The YouGov poll was commissioned by the SNP and conducted from 21-22 April among 1,020 Scottish adults.
WE'VE GOT WHAT IT TAKES - POLL CONFIRMS VOTER’S TRUST IN SNP NECK & NECK RACE FOR WESTMINSTER GRAY’S RATINGS WORSE THAN WENDY’S A new poll by YouGov – and commissioned by the SNP – has confirmed the voters trust in the SNP Government is increasing for all elections as we approach the second anniversary of the SNP’s historic victory in the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections. The poll of 1020 people on 21 and 22nd April 2009 shows: * The SNP increasing its vote in the constituency and regional votes for the Scottish Parliament * The SNP vote for Westminster elections increasing by 12%, bringing the party neck and neck with Labour * Twice as many people trust the SNP Scottish Government to focus on their needs and interests as trust the UK Labour Government * Alex Salmond’s ratings dwarfing other party leaders with Iain Gray’s ratings figures not only lower than Annabel Goldie’s but historically lower than any other Scottish Labour leader. * Voters of all parties see the SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster as a "good thing" for Scotland Commenting on the poll figures Angus Robertson MP, SNP Business Convenor and Westminster leader, said: “This is a sensational poll for the SNP and for Scotland. As we approach the mid term of the Parliament, they are the SNP's strongest ratings since last autumn. “The poll shows that voters across Scotland know that we have what it takes to focus on their needs and interests during tough times. “As the SNP approaches the second anniversary of our historic election victory, the poll demonstrates a tale of two governments. “The SNP’s actions in our first two years in Government have delivered major improvements in people's lives, with the council tax frozen, scrapping of small business rates, the phased abolition of prescription charges, and investment in jobs and skills under our six-point plan to support Scotland through the recession. "By contrast, Labour's £500 million raid on Scottish spending has set the terms of politics in Scotland, and will galvanise SNP support further in the European and Westminster elections to come. "Labour have let people down with their mismanagement of the economy and attacks of Scotland's public services. “Double the number of people trust the SNP Government over the UK Labour government to be on their side. The SNP’s support for jobs, skills, training and investment is clearly recognised by voters as doing everything possible within our powers to promote recovery from Labour’s recession and build a strong, sustainable economy and society.” Commenting on the leadership and First Minister ratings which confirm Alex Salmond’s support and show the Labour leader with the worst figures ever, Mr Robertson said: “This result shows that people believe Alex Salmond is an excellent First Minister for all of Scotland - he is more popular among Labour voters than Iain Gray, and more popular among Lib Dem voters that Tavish Scott! “The poll is a personal disaster for Iain Gray – as Labour’s Scottish leader he is the invisible man, and totally overshadowed by Jim Murphy and Steven Purcell. “No Labour leader has ever had such low support from the Scottish public. When even fewer people want to see Iain Gray as First Minister than wanted Wendy Alexander, this is a crisis for his leadership." Commenting on the voting intentions for Westminster and the support for the SNP to hold the balance of power at Westminster Stewart Hosie MP, Convenor of the SNP’s Westminster Campaign added; “These dramatic results show voters know the SNP has got what it takes to provide them with a strong voice at Westminster. “Labour have lost the trust of the Scottish public. “With a 12% increase from the 2005 election the SNP is winning the trust of the Scottish electorate at all levels whilst Labour is continuing to lose public support and the LibDems are disappearing from the electoral map. “There is clear evidence from this poll that voters of all parties support the SNP holding the balance of power at Westminster, no matter who is in number 10. “The SNP in Westminster have got what it takes to see Scotland’s interests protected, not sacrificed as they have been under successive Labour and Tory governments and this poll shows that the Scottish public recognise our vital role in protecting and promoting their interests." ENDS Notes: Poll details are as follows: Holyrood Constituency Vote Party - Poll (Change from last poll) - [Change from 2007 election] SNP - 37% (+2%) [+4%] Labour - 30% (-4%) [-2%] Tory - 15% (1%) [-2%] LibDem - 13% (1%) [-3%] Other - 5% (1%) [3%] Holyrood Regional Vote Party - Poll (Change from last poll) - [Change from 2007 election] SNP - 37% (+7%) - [+6%] Labour - 28% (-4%) - [-1%] Tory - 15% (0%) - [1%] LibDem - 13% (2%) - [2%] Other - 7% (-5%) - [-8%] Westminster voting intentions: SNP - 30% Lab - 32% Tory - 21% LibDem - 13% Other - 5% * Which ONE, if any, of the following Scottish Political leaders do you think would make the best First Minister? Alex Salmond - 36% Annabelle Goldie - 10% Iain Gray - 7% Tavish Scott - 4% Patrick Harvie - 1% 7% for Iain Gray is the worst figure recorded for a Labour leader in Scotland since the 2007 election and probably since polling began. Wendy Alexander's lowest rating was 9%. Previous polls on party leader ratings had the following ratings for Labour leaders: Apr-09 - 7% - Iain Gray Mar-09 - 17% - Iain Gray Jan-09 - 15% - Iain Gray Oct-08 - 13% - Iain Gray Sep-08 - 15% - Combined Labour* Apr-08 - 11% - Wendy Alexander Nov-07 - 10% - Wendy Alexander Oct-07 - 9% - Wendy Alexander * Figures were Iain Gray 3%, Cathy Jamieson 7%, and Andy Kerr 5%. * Thinking about the performance of the UK Labour Government and the Scottish SNP Government over the past year… - Which do you think cares MOST about the needs and interests of you and your family? Scottish Government - 44% UK Government - 22% Neither - 26% Don’t know - 7% - On balance, do you think the Labour Party will win or lose the next UK General Election? Win - 23% Lose - 61% Don’t know - 17% * It is possible that at the next British general election, neither the Labour or Conservative Party will win an outright majority and that other parties, including the Scottish National Party, could hold the balance of power. - Do you think this is…? A good thing for Scotland - 41% A bad thing for Scotland - 19% Makes no difference either way - 28% Don’t know - 13%
"It would have looked big budget if they'd spent £20,000."
Jings, I thought, 'a sixty second advert of wondrous quality, with an excellent song, jam packed with Scoddish slebs for £2,000, what colour is the sky in this "insiders" world?
Now having been involved in the 'glamorous' world of telly production for a wheen of years, I pondered, at the costs, thankfully the article explained that the rights to the song cost £15,000. For a whole year, pretty darn good. I once enquired about using a 30 second burst of Charles Trenet's 'La Mer' a TV project and was quoted a price of £7,000 for 10 seconds...and that was nearly 20 years ago...However, I digress...I then happened upon BBC Scotland, lapping up this mince like a cake hungry chum slut. Using the rather ambiguous headline,
SNP ad 'cost more than Slumdog'
'Mmm', thought I, an 'SNP ad'. What like a Party Political broadcast? Then like Douglas Fraser's last expenses claim to The Herald, the actual cost rose to a ginormous £559,287
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7999044.stm
Ah but that includes the marketing, promotion and rather importantly the transmission costs in various foreign markets. They then inform us that Mr McDonald was actually wrong that Slumdog in reality cost £10 million pounds rather than the £3million he bandied about like free toilet paper.
This is where my previous experience in production costs come in handy. Low budget films that you have seen in the cinema did not cost the pennies the producers tell you they did, that is part of the marketing mince they want you to buy into.
Reservoir Dogs, Desperado, Do the Right Thing, all done on deferred payments and credit cards. B-O-L-L-O-C-K-S. Each one of these films and Slumdog were party to massive investments in marketing. Slumdog Millionaire was distributed in the US by Fox Searchlight, when they put out a film on US general release in 1000's of screens they spend an average of $30 million dollars on promotion and marketingper fillum...and then when it got the Oscar nod, well double that figure. Every dollar spent getting the Oscar, accrues another 10 dollars on DVD sales and merchandising...
Grrr so for Labour to compare the costs for an advert that is designed to encourage tourists to visit and spend money in Scotland (that includes the parts that are still Labour afflicted) you can surmise that my blood is fairly well close to boiling.
Labour you expect this mince from, but for BBC Scotland to claim Homecoming is an 'SNP ad' and then double the price is just downright insidious. Whichever Labour lackey decided this is the path to impartial reporting needs taken out and given a right good shoeing.
Everton fan Holleran, with his lip all a quiver, replied: "They’re not coping. I carried out a surgery the other week, and had people from 9am to 6.15pm, complaining about new contracts, new working conditions, the pressure they have been put under.
"I was getting reports of senior people in tears at The Herald. What epitomises the loss of morale is when I met with the managing director of Newsquest after their announcement, he said we want between 30 and 40 journalists to go.
"They had 51 volunteers. That tells you the level of morale."
Yep, the recession is hitting Scottish journos hard. The clichéd view of the hard drinking, hard man Scottish journalist is impacting on this generation who are oft seen crying into their expenses fuelled Mojitos whilst twittering on their Blackberries about how evil their bosses are to them..."In the past five years there have been a number of actions that have impacted on the quality of the newspapers in Scotland," he said.
"I'm talking of a number of appointments where editors originated from south of the Watford Gap, shall we say.
"They were appointed editors of Scottish newspapers without knowing the local patch. That was a big starting point.
"They're trying to regain that momentum. However, during that period, as profitability of these titles has gone up – and it has gone up, quite dramatically - they have closed a number of correspondents.
"There's a lack of coverage of European Parliament, in Brussels and Strasbourg, the number of columnists has gone down, there's less diversity. That's part of the problem of falling circulation."
Chunky bearded Scouser Paul Holleran, 58, father of three, with a twinkle in his eye, also cited competition from English papers with Scottish pages, especially the "cut-price" Daily Star and Sun.
Sooooooooo appointing English editors with a 'British' perspective to Scottish titles has not worked. The endless torrent of anti-SNP headlines and stories in the Hootsman, Herald, Daily Labour and faux Jock blatts has merely brought about a paradigm shift in the Scottish electorate and has seen the "Nationalists Seize Control" of holyrood and Local Authorities the length and breadth of Alba.
After centuries of fighting the English to maintain independence, the two thrones were united when James VI of Scotland became James I of England in 1603, after Elizabeth died childless. In 1707, the two countries were joined under one parliament - the one in London. For the next 300 years, Scotland helped build the British empire, contributed more soldiers per capita to Britain's wars than any other region, invented more things, and had more than its share of prime ministers. Edinburgh became the seat of the Scottish enlightenment, a remarkable burst of creative energy in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. But something of William Wallace, Robert the Bruce, and the independence of yore lingered in the Scottish heart.
Ten years ago, Scotland got its own parliament back, with limited powers. Defense and diplomacy are in London's hands. The Scottish National Party won the election of 2007 by a whisker. Some thought the Scottish Nationalists' minority government would fail, but it hasn't. Neither has Salmond, whose rapier repartee is often on display in the parliamentary put-down that Britons love.
On a recent visit to Edinburgh, I met the first minister in his office in the new Scottish parliament, a startling architectural statement in the tumble-down modern style. An economist by training, Salmond is a big admirer of the late John Kenneth Galbraith and began quoting some of his work from memory.
His plan is to get a referendum on Scottish independence before the people sometime next year. Polls don't show a majority of Scots ready for independence yet, but Salmond believes that they do want the choice. Getting a bill passed on a referendum will be difficult because neither Labor, nor the Tories, nor the Liberal Democrats want any such thing. During my visit, the Scottish edition of the Times of London revealed that in the 1970s the British Labor government went so far as to redraw the boundaries of North Sea oil to deprive Scotland of much of it, and even contemplated stirring up separatists movements in the Scottish isles of Orkney and the Shetlands, should Scotland go independent, to deprive Scotland of even more oil.
Salmond says the nations he looks to for inspiration are Ireland for its lower corporate taxes, the recession notwithstanding; Norway for its stewardship of oil revenues; Finland for education; and the region of Catalonia in Spain for its emphasis on cultural identity. In general, "I tend to like the Scandinavian societies," he said, for the way they balance freedoms and social responsibilities.
Salmond's independent Scotland would keep the monarchy and the English language, although efforts are being made to keep Scottish Gaelic alive. Salmond himself uses old Scots, the language of Robert Burns, when he feels the need to tweak colleagues in the British parliament in London where he also sits. "They know they are being insulted, but not how much," he says.
The SNP's nationalism is based on citizenship, rather than on ethnicity, religion, or language, and is pro-immigration; quite different from many national movements.
Scotland's two biggest banks,
Scotland's near neighbors, Ireland, Iceland and Norway, all became independent in the 20th century. Salmond is hoping that Scotland will come into its own early in the 21st.
H.D.S. Greenway's column appears regularly in the Globe.Rockin' Roddy Piper Hoo haaa!
Glenn Campbell: "The talk in thisSoooooo, Mundell of Kandahar and Moffat is ok with Labour's plans to raid Scotland’s budget and in the process fuck up health, education, housing, environment, culture, enterprise and transport by introducing the first pukka cut in Scotland’s public expenditure since the Tories in the 1990's?
interview is about the issue of
addressing unfairness - perceived
unfairness - within the union.
Would a Conservative Government
then look again at the proposed
cuts to the Scottish Budget over
the next couple of years if
you were in a position to do so?
David Mundell: "Well I think it's
inevitable as when we head into
these difficult financial times,
when there is going to have to
be restraint in spending, that
there is going to have to be
restraint in spending in Scotland.
And I think it's unrealistic to
pretend otherwise...
it's a sort of fiction that
Alex Salmond and the
SNP promulgate -
the fact that Scotland
could beexempt from
the financial difficulties
and constraints that
the rest of the United
Kingdom will have to face."
So the news this week that Dave Cameron has invited the redoubtable auntie Bella to don the tartan trews (she's comfortable with slacks) and join his cabinet team as a de facto voice from within Holyrood, really leaves poor David Mundell looking like a bit of a cock.
Documents detailing secret government plans in the 1970s to prevent Scotland laying claim to North Sea oil have been seen by The Times. They show the extraordinary lengths to which civil servants were prepared to go to head off devolution, which was seen then as inevitably leading to independence.
The proposals included suggesting to Labour ministers, for whom devolution was a manifesto commitment, that progress towards a referendum should be delayed, in the hope that enthusiasm north of the Border would wane.
Treasury officials also advised that the boundaries of Scotland's coastal waters should be redrawn and a new sector created to “neutralise” Scotland's claim to North Sea oil – a step that was taken.
One Treasury official even proposed that a local campaign for independence in Orkney and Shetland should be encouraged so that Scotland would be denied access to more than half the North Sea oil. The idea was that the islands would prefer to throw in their lot with London rather than Edinburgh.
Sir David's advice was heeded. It was another four years before the Scots were allowed to vote on whether or not they wanted an assembly in Edinburgh.
The documents – letters, memorandums and briefing papers from the Public Record Offices at Kew and in Edinburgh – show that some civil servants were alarmed by the threat that devolution posed to North Sea oil revenues, which were servicing Britain's external debt.
One paper, by Graham Kear, under-secretary at the Department of Energy, suggested that the Northern Isles might be hived off from Scotland. He wrote: “If Scotland and the Orkney and Shetland Islands are both regarded as states, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, median lines can be drawn to divide the United Kingdom Continental Shelf between Orkney & Shetland/Scotland and between Scotland/England.”
One way of doing this, according to civil servants advising Anthony Crosland, the Environment Secretary, would be to realign the subsea border between Scotland and England, so that it ran northeast instead of east.
Mr Kear's doubts were shared by his political boss, Tony Benn, the Energy Secretary, who wrote to Ted Short, the deputy leader: “There is general agreement that energy policy – its formulation and execution – should be a function reserved to the UK Government.”
Mr Benn told The Times yesterday that he had favoured Scottish devolution. “I have always taken the view that power was too centralised,” he said. “I think you have to determine what it's appropriate to devolve. On the question of ownership of natural resources, that has to be seen as an integral part of the country.”