Sunday, 6 May 2012

The slippery pole of council elections.


BBC Scotland's rather unusual approach to the data on which of the two major parties won or lost the greater number of seats, was odd in the extreme. They appear to have counted the by-elections, expulsions and resignations that occurred between the 2007 and 2012 elections and then deducted them from the results in 2007! However, they are our very own state broadcaster and it is their prerogative as to how they inform or misinform the license paying electorate. On Friday as the results came in STV used the base results of 2007 and the world of the cybernat was content. Flash forward to Sunday and for some bizarre reason they've started using the BBC figures.

I've been waiting patiently since Friday for a breakdown of the actual voting numbers from the election, finally they've arrived.

First lets put them in context and go back in time to 1995. So come with me dear reader, here take my hand and let's do that swishy thing with your hands and make a sound effect noise.

1995 saw riots in Brixton, Hamish Macbeth and his wee dug made their debut on the telly, houses cost an average of £68,000, Oasis and Blur were both facing off like the knobs they were, John Major's Tory party were presenting Blair as Bambi and petrol was only £2.50 a gallon.

It was also the first election for the 29 new unitary authorities created under the Scotland Act 1994 that replaced the nine old regions, which had been created a mere 20 years earlier.

Labour were in the ascendancy. I remember a trip to Westminster on business, where a Labour MP showed me around the Commons. He had the air of a man about to buy the place, he waved around the various rooms indicating where they'd be putting new carpets and fresh wall paper. Change was tangible, the wicked witch was gone and Major surely couldn't hang on in the face of Blair's appeal to Essex Man. Spurred on by the death of John Smith MP, Labour were in prime position to grab a record 56 seats in Scotland a couple of years time.

1995 local election results bellowed Labour's dominance of the Scottish political scene from the biggest Munro.
 They took a stonking 52.9% of the vote. This equated to 742,557 votes and 614 wards.
The SNP with nearly 450,000 votes trailed in a poor second with a paltry 15.6% and a mere 181 wards.
The smaller parties shared the lesser spoils and had a minimal impact, although it's only fair to point out that the Lib Dems

1999 saw a bit of a change in the dynamics. So buzzed up was the electorate with our first ever Holyrood election, that the Local Authority elections, happening for the first time ever on the same day were more or less forgotten about. The results are not that easy to find on t'internet, thankfully my googling skills are legendary and I can now present the percentage and wards/councillors for your delectation.
Labour were still the biggest party with 47.5% of the electorate backing them. This equated to 545 wards.  The SNP improved a smidge with 17.5% and 201 wards. The Tories and the Lib Dems improved a bit, but still Labour were huge.

2003 gets interesting. Labour start to slip, their vote falls to 611,893 and a mere 509 wards. The SNP vote is a bit static with 451,660 folk vote for them but they end up dropping 20 wards with 181 wards. Both the Tories and Lib Dems make significant inroads returning 122 and 175 councillors respectively. The Lib Dems with nearly half the vote of the SNP are a mere 6 councillors below the SNP.

2007 is when things start to get significant. We see the introduction of the game changing STV system and further deterioration in Labour's turnout, which falls to 590,085.They are hammered in the wards and lose a gob smacking 161 councillors leaving them with exactly 348 councillors. The SNP a mere 4,200 votes behind at 585,085 snatch an additional 182 wards giving them the most councillors in Scotland at 363. This is a monumental turn around in Scottish politics, with SNP winning the actual vote and councillor numbers.

Fast forward to May 2012 and here are the figures

Labour 487,884 votes and 394 councillors.

SNP on 502,201 votes and 424 councillors.

So, let's take this right back to 1995 and the first significant change in the way our local cooncillors are elected.


In a seventeen year period, embracing 13 years of Labour Westminster government and 10 years of coalition government at Holyrood. Labour have seen voter excitement move to voter apathy at local elections and their support fall from 742,557 to 487,884. Their percentage tumble from 52.9% to 31.39% and their army of 614 councillors plummet to 394.

Over that same period, the 'single issue' SNP vote rose from 444,918 to 502,201 their percentage share 26.1% to 32.32 and their councillors rise from a paltry 181 to pretty substantial 424.

The paid and mouthpiece on-line commentators can shout as much as they want about a perceived Labour recovery and salvation for the Union. This is no recovery, they've simply managed to grab the handbrake on as they dangle over a cliff.






Smell the cheese.

Smell the cheese.
Former vile blogger Montague Burton aka Mark MacLachlan

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Children in tweed.

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