Neither a borrower nor a lender be...

BBC Scotland's online front page seem to find itself in a right fankle this morning.

First of all they lead with the rather wooly Scots 'tend to blame Labour' for cuts.

Which somehow over the course of the morning morphed into the more definite Labour 'more to blame'.

 

I suppose we shouldn't be surprised at this wibbling, as the task of convincing the electorate that Labour has nothing to do with the cuts is as big a task as persuading Tommy Sheridan that although honesty may be the best policy, dishonesty, by a process of elimination, is not the second best policy...


The IPSOS mori poll that the beeb are trumpeting uses the rather loaded "From the following who do you think is responsible for the spending cuts that are soon to be announced?" They then go on to list the previous Labour Government, the current coalition, and then, no doubt with an eye on equal opportunities, the present SNP government. A quick perusal of their findings reveals that the blame fairly and squarely lies on err almost anyone but Labour.  According to the poll 47% of men and 58% of women blame the coalition and the SNP for the coming cuts.  How can anyone in their right mind blame either the Tories/Lib Dems or the SNP for the massive debt we've all supposedly been saddled with, when Labour have been in charge of the chuffing purse strings for the past 13 years?



All this talk of debt and our by now resigned acceptance that cuts are inevitable  got me thinking about it at a local level and how this will impact on poor wee Dumfries and Galloway.


We've got a declining population of 148,600 of which less than 58% are of working age. We've got 32,000 under 19 and a whopping 43,000 folk of pensionable age. We've got high pockets of unemployment with multiple generations of families never having worked. Wages and household income levels are among the lowest in Scotland and the UK coming in at 92% of the Scottish average. Our affordable housing is so strained with the number of people from outside the region choosing to retire here that our young cannot afford to live in the place they grew up in and are now abandoning the place at a rapid rate of knots.

Those fortunate enough to be in jobs are mostly employed with the council, some 8,000 at last count. NHS D&G contributes to a fair whack of weekly incomes. A few SME's apart the rest of our employers can be found in the Agriculture and tourism markets...all of which brings me to question our sustainability and how D&G can cope with the cuts that Labour have brought about the need for?

Dumfries and Galloway council has a budget of £348 million. According to John Swinney we have inherited a PPP/PFI commitment of some £20 million per year, which varies year on year, but runs all the way until 2041-42. This money has been spent on new schools, school refurbishments, the sports centre and the Eco Deco plant operated by Shanks who recently sold their PFI subordinated debts on to Laing Investments. Cf passim 

On top of that, we have the recent news from Professor David Bell of Stirling University that Scotland's councils are in debt to the tune of £9 BILLION. D&G's share of this is a mere £160.4m. Thankfully, this doesn't compare to the whopping £1.200 million that Edinburgh owes or the eye watering £1.426 million that Glasgow owes to the men in the pin stripe suits. As Prof Bell says, "Councils can generate revenue via council tax, business rates, the sale of land and charges for services like care, parking and sports facilities". So let's look at these: 

(1)The council tax has been frozen by the Scottish Government, in an attempt to make councils more efficient. Without doubt this has helped families make their money go a little further. Councils have gobbled down the £70 million sweetener yet come back in Oliver Twist demanding more!
(2) Business rates. With retail disappearing from our town centres and Dumfries being named as Scotland's top 'clone town' attracting large retailers and their juicy business rates has never been more difficult. The Scottish Government in an effort to encourage small business decreed that those with properties under a rateable value of £10,000 now get them for free...
(3) Land sales. Given the recession started with the heavy mortgaging and ludicrous pricing of commercial property to such an extent that the bottom has well and truly bottomed out, what chances does D&G have of selling off any left over land it might have previously used to dig itself out of a hole with?


(4) Charges for care, parking and sport. Well care charges are a convoluted and despairing arena which I'm not venturing into. Car parks, Dumfries has universal free parking around the town centre, don't fancy staying for half an hour in Bank street, park on the sands and you're allowed three hours free. Sports, we're already charged more than enough for the shoddy facilities.

So given the fact that Gideon Osbourne is likely to aim at a figure between 17- 20% in cuts to the Scottish Government and these costs will be handed on to local authorities throughout Scotland, I hereby nominate Dumfries and Galloway as the first Scottish council likely to be bankrupt in the next four years. 

Oh for your information, for the last decade or so, we've had a Labour MP, a Labour MSP and a predominantly Labour council. I tend to blame them.

Perhaps we're all heading to debtors jail...