POLL SHOWS INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM “THERE TO BE WON”
SUPPORT MOVES AHEAD IN EUROPEAN CONTEXT
New findings of a YouGov poll show that support for Scottish independence moves ahead when the question is put in the context of Scotland being “a member of the European Union in its own right”. In total, 42 per cent back that position, compared to 40 per cent against.
The poll also shows that 35 per cent of Scots are more likely to back Scottish independence if the Tories were to win the next General Election, compared to just 6 per cent who would be less likely – a balance of some six-to-one.
In the independence referendum poll question, support for independence increases by 4 points from the last YouGov poll in March to 37%, with 52% against – the best position in a YouGov poll since September 2008.
SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson said:
“This poll shows that an independence referendum is there to be won. As we approach the European elections, when people are asked if they want Scotland to be a member of the EU in our own right – as opposed to being represented by the UK government – the answer is positive. And the headline support for independence has also increased by 4 points to the best position in a YouGov poll since last autumn.
“As the UK government arbitrarily axes the Scottish budget by £500 million in the teeth of a recession, it will become ever clearer why Scotland needs to be in charge of our own resources – and with our own voice to protect and promote Scottish interests in Europe.”
SNP President and MEP Ian Hudghton said;
“This poll is an excellent starting point for the SNP as we go into the European election campaign.
“This poll shows voters want Scotland to have a strong independent voice in Europe. A vote for the SNP in June is about giving Scotland that voice, supporting the SNP in fighting for Scottish jobs in Europe and showing that Scotland has what it takes to be at the heart of Europe.”
ENDS
Details of the poll are as follows:
On balance do you think Scotland should…?
Continue to be represented by the UK Government in the European Union - 40%
Be a member of the European Union in its own right and represented by the Scottish Government - 42%
Neither of these - 9%
Don’t know - 9%
In the referendum, the Scottish Government intends to ask people whether they think the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership with the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent country.
Do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate this new partnership?
I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 37%
I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 52%
Don’t know - 11%
Note - In a YouGov poll in January the gap was 26% and in a March YouGov poll it was 20%.
If the Conservative Party were to win the next General Election, would this make you more likely or less likely to back Scottish independence?
Much more likely to back Scottish independence - 24%
Slightly more likely - 11%
Slightly less likely - 3%
Much less likely to back Scottish independence - 3%
No difference – I would back Scottish independence anyway - 14%
No difference – I would NOT back Scottish independence anyway - 34%
Don’t know - 11%
The YouGov poll was commissioned by the SNP and conducted from 21-22 April among 1,020 Scottish adults.
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8 comments:
Interesting breakdown, thanks Monty. Still a long way to go though. The 11% don't knows shall hold the key methinks.
You can't afford independence. That is the reality.
Ahoy ma Murk, great news. Still a bit of work to do but at least the Labour lies are beginning to unfold.
Anonymous, well that's for us to sort out then, i cant understand the resentment from others when they say England subsidises Scotland yet hate it when we talk about independence, it doesn't add up.
I don't see the referendum happening next year but this is heartening for the SNP I would think, not great (obviously) but "there to be won" is a fine way of putting it.
Once the Tories are in, the numbers can only increase barring some unforeseen circumstance.
Monty - thanks for the post - an SNP news release, I see.
But, despite Angus Robertson's spin, etc, this to me makes pretty grim reading for a party comimitted to an indepemdence referendum in 2010 - that's next year!
"There to be won" - a bit like what The Saints boss Gus McPherson no doubt said to his team juat befor KO at Hampden Yesterday.
Yet even in SNP designed questions, we lose every one, some by a mile. And I see the poll was taken in the immeduated aftermath of the SNPs spring conference, PPB etc. And at with McBride smeargate still very fresh in people's minds.
So we pick the polling company, set the questions, and determine the dates - and still lose. Yet spin this as good news!
And I see Angus could not resist including the "£500m cut" mantra- despite this being by the scottish governments statistics now provably now wrong. Cut ( assumed efficency savings actually) £500m, increase in Scottish block due to post Budget Barnett uprating £700m.
But Budgets or poll results, why let stats, facts, get in the way when there is an artmy of enthusiastic nats out there willing to gobble up and then reproduced the central office line?
Msybe becuase this will all catch up with us Angus.
Beacuse the big stats that really counts is SNP party members c 10,000, people of Scotland c 5 million And then, referndum wise, add pro union media bias, plus people's inherent caution when really faced with a big irreversible decision, not a polsters, hypothetical one. Folk forget we only beat doscedited, numpyu Labour by one seat in 2007, by less than 2% of the popular vote - and then ad on the Libs and the Tories to the Unionisty block . And our camoaign wsa great.Labour's a shambles. They will not be allowed to fuck up an independence referndum campaign. Be sure, we will be up against the absolute best in campaigning terms, an all party, no party block, for whom money, and bought in expertise will be no object.
And whilt my team StMirren got gubbed 3-0 yesterday, I sam sure our Manger and our fans left thinking "always nexy year. Get the referndum wrong, and it will be "always again in 20 years" - in the case of most folk over 50, never again. So forgive me for being analytical, brutal - not a news release reproducer
Particularly as, if we play our cards right, i believe we could win it about 2013/4 as I can expain in detail, but not here.
We have an absolute duty to the people of Scotland to get this right. This is Scotland's historic opportunity.
Alan, was it the "ENDS" that gave it away as a press release? As a member I subscribe to snp.org they keep me up to date by sending me releases when they launch them...
I see that you're post is identical to the one you posted on Jeff's blog, fear not it doesn't dilute your message, although I wonder if it makes you a blog reproducer. If I had time, I might have sat down and summarised the release into my own thoughts, however, being short of time this morning, I copied, pasted, posted and ran.
Now to your assertion, that "we pick the polling company, set the questions, and determine the dates - and still lose. Yet spin this as good news!" Can I point you in the direction of the following addendum to the Referendum question,
"In a YouGov poll in January the gap was 26% and in a March YouGov poll it was 20%."
One month on that gap is 15%. Surely in anyone's book that is good news, not requiring spin of any timbre?
You claim, that SNP membership is circa 10,000. As of January WE broke the 15,000 barrier, I've personally welcomed 20 new members to my branch since January, and that's in a town with a Labour MP and MSP and bordering Tory MP and MSP, I imagine that scenario is being replicated around the country.
I do not share the negative outlook that we can't turn the figures around in a year. You and I are both old enough to remember the Scottish Nose Pickers when WE dwelled down in the 5-8% bracket, to have come from that nadir to being in government and governing well, the prospect of a referendum is one I relish.
Incidentally, I'm enjoying your use of "We", have you decided to join the party?
Cannae help agreeing with Aye We Can. Thre's a long long way to go on this and we will only get one opportunity to get it right.
Bullshit spinning of a poll commissioned by the SNP will be counter productive.
Monty
No I aint joined the party, (Never ever been asked by anyone incidentally) But why bother asking - i's just be expelled
I use the "we" in terms of us who want independence - which lets be optimistic and call that about 2 million folks. This I think put you 15,00 members in perspective - glad its up, but still a tiny elite, not near big enough to break the union. Indeed laughable in continantal europe or US term.
Not fundamentally the SNP's fault, but a product of the closed politcal culure of the UK. But whilst the SNP wants to break the Union, it seem content enough to operate the small membership, and political whipping system of the unionist parties - indeed with a vengence. More centralist than New Labour - and Ive studied them both closely , started out wanting to beliecve the SNP much more tolerant, eccumenical. But say boo, and the whips will have you in threatening with all sorts. Peter mureel willget working on these list placing etc etc. Ask Margo, Dorothy Grace, Campbell Martin ( expelled for saying then leader John Swinney , making no electal impact, should stand down. It was only when George Galloway backed calls for the asasination of Tomny Blair that he was envetually expelled)
Ask guys like Kenny Gibson, Bill Kid, Sandra White and co why they never say anything remotely off message, even when 100% oppossed to what is beinbg done.
Ask why people, all with O grade arithmetic, all repeat the £500million cut mantra - when by just looking at the official figures you could see its garbage - net increase in Scottish Govement budget this year compared top last of over £1bn, with £1bn more coming in 2010-11. Not even an argument - a statistical fact - its in the SNP Goverments own stats - phone them up!
All this disembling - lying in the case of the Budget has costs - a lack of intenal pressure, leading, complacency and once reality catches up a field day for opposition parties echoed and maginfied by their media cronies.
But ultimately I value my independence of though, freedom of speech, over scottish independence - especially with the 15,000 controlled by about 5, and that 5 defining what "Scottish Indpendence " maens.
Off to read you Paul McBride post - always thought him a grade 1 chancer.( Michelle Mone, I suepect more genuine, even if way wrong) Need to read up on the detail. Do you know what seat he has been offered?
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